Bitcoin Slides Below $77K Amid Oil, Treasury Yield Spike

Bitcoin dropped below $77,000 on Monday in Asian trading as macroeconomic headwinds intensified. The 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.13%, marking its highest close since 2007, while oil prices surged simultaneously. These movements signal deteriorating conditions for risk assets.

Prediction market data from Polymarket reveals traders have priced in a 98% probability of no Federal Reserve rate cut in June and 94% in July. This expectation extends the opportunity cost of holding bitcoin and other non-yielding cryptocurrencies, as investors can earn returns through traditional fixed-income instruments.

On-chain analysis from Binance Research provides crucial context. Long-term bitcoin holders remain positioned defensively, with exchange balances hovering near six-year lows—a historically bullish signal. However, this strength masks vulnerability. Underwater short-term holders face pressure during macro-driven sell-offs, leaving the market susceptible to cascading liquidations when sentiment shifts.

The concurrent rise in both oil prices and bond yields reflects broader economic uncertainty. Higher Treasury yields typically compress valuations for growth and speculative assets, including cryptocurrencies. The correlation between [INTERNAL: Federal Reserve rates] and bitcoin volatility has intensified as macro factors increasingly dominate micro narratives.

Exchanges serving as key indicators show that while accumulation patterns suggest long-term conviction, near-term price action remains fragile. Technical support levels will be critical as traders assess whether the decline represents a healthy pullback or the beginning of a more substantial correction.

This price action underscores bitcoin's continued sensitivity to macro conditions despite arguments for its uncorrelated asset status. Not financial advice.