Fear & Greed at 55 (z=2.84) While Mempool Depth Falls 52.4% (z=-6.42)

Mempool Depth Collapses While Sentiment Lifts

Mempool transaction count reached 47,152 (mempool.space), a z-score of -6.42 and a 52.4% decline against the 30-day mean of 98,962. Over the same window the Fear & Greed Index rose to 55/100 (alternative.me), z=2.84, a +225.7% move against its 30-day mean of 16.88.

Historically, sharp mempool contractions have coincided with periods of reduced on-chain activity, though the curated reference set here does not include a directly matching episode with verifiable values, so no specific precedent is cited. The regime is one of low transaction demand on the base layer alongside a sentiment reading that has shifted toward neutral.

The flow data offers no confirmation of the sentiment move. Exchange netflow (CoinGlass) is recorded at 0 BTC against a 30-day baseline of 0 BTC (σ=1), and miner outflows (CoinGlass) are also 0 BTC. BTC 24h volume of $25.21B (0.83x the 30-day average) is also subdued. In my view, a sentiment reading rising while both flow and volume stay flat is not yet a price signal.

What to watch: if mempool transaction count (mempool.space) recovers above 90,000 within the next 7 days, the depth collapse is resolving and the sentiment reading can be assessed against normalizing network activity; if it remains below 50,000 across the same window, the divergence between sentiment and on-chain depth persists.

Not financial advice.